How low can a VIX go?
That seems to be a doubt sidestep supports are seeking as they
continue to gamble that a supposed batch marketplace fear sign will
tumble serve from its near-record-low levels.
Positioning on VIX futures, that concede investors to gamble on
either a batch marketplace will see large cost swings, is now the
many bearish on record, according to
Commodity Futures Trading Commission information going behind to 2004.
And a gamble conflicting a VIX generally translates to a bullish wager
on a SP 500, given a VIX and a SP 500 tend to
pierce in conflicting directions. That means investors are more
assured about serve gains in bonds than during any other
time in some-more than a decade, during slightest according to this
Business Insider / Andy Kiersz, information from
It’s a latest confident vigilance being flashed by a seemingly
unstoppable batch marketplace that’s some-more than 8 years into its
latest longhorn cycle, a second-longest on record. Less than three
weeks ago, a CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio
fell to a lowest turn of a year, 20% next a measure’s
bull-market average, implying that traders are creation a small
series of bearish bets compared with bullish bets.
Amid a apparent miss of worry, not everybody is convinced.
To JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic, a low-volatility
sourroundings is a
disaster watchful to happen. What worries Kolanovic, the
firm’s tellurian conduct of macro quantitative and derivatives
strategy, is a ever-present probability that a marketplace will
make an suddenly pointy move. He thinks that if a VIX, which
is sitting nearby 10, spikes adult to 20, a short-volatility
plan could be during risk of “catastrophic losses.”
Still, equity experts around Wall Street aren’t sounding the
alarm bells yet. They see a SP 500 finale a year at
2,414, according to a Bloomberg consult of 19 strategists, less
than 0.1% from final Friday’s shutting price.
In other words, they see a marketplace sitting still. An ideal
conditions for those betting conflicting a VIX.